May 14, 2008
Some Clarifications
Things are quiet around the country today as everyone is holding their breath waiting to see if the Arab League can pull a bright shiny political solution from behind Lebanon's ear.
In the lull, and if they can't reach a deal it will only be a lull, I'd like to take a moment and note some things that have been very confused or ambiguous in the press about the clashes of the past several days.
The Opposition did not attack Future supporters in force. Tariq Jedideh, on the border of the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut, is Future's real stronghold in Beirut, and when Hezbollah was sweeping into West Beirut Thursday and Friday, it skirted that area. Future supporters, as well as PSP members, fought throughout other areas, but in neighborhoods they shared with Amal or SSNP supporters.
By skirting Tariq Jedideh, Hezbollah avoided taking Future head on in its true power center. So while the occupation of West Beirut is certainly a military victory for Hezbollah, it's a qualified one. Had they tried to occupy Tariq Jedideh, that victory may well have taken quite a lot longer, been a lot bloodier, and thus been a lot less awe inspiring.
Tripoli and Halba. I'm working on this story right now, but I'm just really getting started. I've seen the videos of people disrespecting SSNP bodies, I've read accounts from both sides.
From what I've seen, after the takeover of West Beirut, the Mufti of Akkar (the top Sunni religious figure in the area) called for a demonstration and supporters gathered in Tripoli and marched on the SSNP headquarters there. As they were still gathering, snipers on rooftops started shooting into the crowd, killing three boys. The boys were from three villages in the surrounding area, and when their families heard the news they armed themselves and headed towards Tripoli. They had to go by way of Halba, and encountered an SSNP roadblock there (the SSNP had been alerted that they were coming). The fought them and chased them back to their offices in Halba, and massacred them. Then they apparently kicked the bodies around some - those are the videos I've seen. They handed the offices over to the army shortly afterward.
Clashes continued in Tripoli sporadically for the next couple days, but the real danger is that the Mufti and his folks are treating this as a war between the SSNP and the Sunni sect, not just SSNP v. Future. That means the Jamaa Islamiyaa, "salafis" to those in the West, are rearing to get involved. Fatah al-Islam of Nahr al-Bared fame is also sending around faxes decrying both the "American/Israeli project" as well as the apostate Shia of Hezbollah. So watch this space for further violence.
The Christian Connection. Christian areas have been entirely unaffected by the recent clashes, despite deep divisions within the communities between pro-government and pro-opposition supporters. From reporting I've read and from talking to friends in Achrafieh, it seems Hezbollah's actions have rattled the pro-opposition Christian bloc. But while some have been knocked loose and now oppose Hezbollah and their allies, there is no large exodus from the bloc behind Michel Aoun and indeed his hard core supporters have apparently become more devoutly devoted to their cause. Aoun's orange "check mark" flags are still flying proudly and I've even seen more people wearing orange around the streets.
After the battles in the Chouf I was worried that fighting might spread next to Christian areas, pitting the Lebanese Forces against die hard Aounists, Franjieh Sleiman's pro-Syrian Marada guys (at least in Zgharta in the North), and the seemingly ubiquitous SSNP. The LF are rumored to be as heavily armed and fiesty as the Druze, but these rumors are entirely untested. I have no hunches - or rather, mutually contradictory hunches - either way. It's a big fat question mark.
Michel Aoun's memorandum of understanding with Hezbollah has been waved around as the reason why the Christian areas are safe. This strikes me as feeding the crocodile so it eats you last, but Lebanese Christians appear to be happy to let this be a Sunni/Druze-Shia conflict as much as possible, and as much as the MOU helps make that possible, it helps Aoun's standing. With business as usual proceeding throughout Christian areas even as people fought it out with machine guns and RPGs in Hamra, Aoun actually comes away looking pretty smart.
So I think the take away message here is, the FPM and their allies have little stomach for testing the LF's strength, especially while continued peace makes them look good, and the LF isn't going to start anything on its own. So peace reigns in Christendom, for now.
Posted by ben at May 14, 2008 06:36 AM