Rational Grounds

Bandar is a Washington icon. He's been around for over 20 years, and he is famously friendly with the Bush clan. He may very well have been read into the Iraq invasion plans before our own Secretary of State. He's an immense asset as ambassador for the Saudis. Guys like that don't just quit for "personal reasons" and they don't get reassigned at the first whif of a possible scandal, especially scandals they've walked away from before.

So why would Crown Prince 'Abdallah want to replace him? I can think of a limited set of reasons you get rid of an ambassador, especially a popular one: 1) they can't or won't promote your agenda with the host country, 2) they've become hopelessly embroiled in a diplomatic scandal and it's hurting the countries interests, or 3) you don't trust them. Number 2 can be ruled out for now, barring any pending surprise announcements.

If we proceed from that list of reasons, why wouldn't 'Abdallah trust Bandar to promote his agenda? Well, okay, as noted before Bandar is loyal to his father, Defense Minister Prince Sultan, and Sultan and 'Abdallah really don't like each other. Sultan is next in line for the crown after 'Abdallah, and he's a big beneficiary of the graft that 'Abdallah wants to get rid of. But that's been true for quite a while now. What's more, Bandar has apparently been threatening or rumoring a resignation for months if not years. What changed recently to make that so important?

My hunch is that it has to do with King Fahd's impending demise. He's been hospitalized since May of this year, all the while "improving" and likely to "leave the hospital soon." Until just recently, however, when Prince Sultan announced that there was no hurry for him to leave. (Followed today by Prince Ahmed's announcement that Fahd would leave Real Soon Now.)

Couple this with the confusing back and forth rumors about Bandar's resignation the past several weeks:

• Saudi Ambassador resigns - June 26, 2005
• Saudi says its US ambassador remains in post - June 27, 2005
• Saudi Arabia's envoy to the US resigns - June 30, 2005

The World Peace Herald, quoting Palestinian news source al-Quds al-Arabi has some more inside speculation:

The independent Palestinian-owned daily said Prince Bandar bin Sultan's resignation after more than 20 years on the job reflected the first indication of the growing differences among the ruling family on the distribution of positions in the aftermath of King Fahd's ill health.

It said while the reasons for Bandar's move was unknown, it quoted unidentified Saudi sources as saying Bandar was "very dismayed" that Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah had relied on his personal envoy, Adel al-Jubeir, to deliver messages to the U.S. government. The sources told the paper Bandar was expected to be named head of the kingdom's intelligence services but Abdullah, who runs the country, instead appointed Prince Nawaf bin Abdul Aziz, who was dismissed a few months ago.

It said it appeared Bandar "realized he will not achieve his ambitions of entering the Cabinet or assuming another senior position, so he decided to resign as ambassador, regarded as the highest Saudi diplomatic position." The paper said some Saudi princes cut their summer vacations short and returned to their country in recent days "expecting the worst," adding it was still unknown who would replace Turki al-Faisal, who has been named Bandar's replacement in Washington, as ambassador to London; 35 princes at the Foreign Ministry are competing for the job.

IF 'Abdallah was about to make a move to become King or Regent, based on King Fahd's death or official incapacitation, he would want his own man in Washington to ensure American support during the political infighting. Could this be the first move in a massive intra-Sa'ud power struggle? All this is me just thinking out loud - I don't have any information other than what I've quoted and linked to. Perhaps we'll see in the coming days.