No, dear sir. The inescapable question is, "Are you actually surprised?" As McClatchy news reminds us, this was all obvious from the beginning and throughout the whole sordid mess, for those with a will to see it. And as Laura Rozen notes, McClellan hewed to the administration's line like it was his job because it was his job.

I watched many of McClellan's press conferences during his tenure. He was a terrible liar. You could see the sweat rolling off him as he stammered his way through deflecting pointed questions. I was surprised he lasted as long as he did. It boggles me that anyone could look at the guy and not know he didn't believe anything he was saying, and that he wasn't at least a little troubled by the fact.

So this whole faux shock schtick is just ridiculous. If you didn't know you were being lied to, it's because you chose not to know. The evidence was there.

(Former) Army Commander Michel Sleiman was sworn in as president on Sunday, and the following day there was a massive fireworks display downtown followed by a concert by Lebanese diva Haifa Wehbe. Traffic was at a standstill.

But so what does Lebanon have now? It's not all sun and roses, especially for March 14. Let's look at the points of the Doha agreement for a moment.

In the lull, and if they can't reach a deal it will only be a lull, I'd like to take a moment and note some things that have been very confused or ambiguous in the press about the clashes of the past several days.

The Opposition did not attack Future supporters in force. Tariq Jedideh, on the border of the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut, is Future's real stronghold in Beirut, and when Hezbollah was sweeping into West Beirut Thursday and Friday, it skirted that area. Future supporters, as well as PSP members, fought throughout other areas, but in neighborhoods they shared with Amal or SSNP supporters.

By skirting Tariq Jedideh, Hezbollah avoided taking Future head on in its true power center. So while the occupation of West Beirut is certainly a military victory for Hezbollah, it's a qualified one. Had they tried to occupy Tariq Jedideh, that victory may well have taken quite a lot longer, been a lot bloodier, and thus been a lot less awe inspiring.

Tripoli and Halba. I'm working on this story right now, but I'm just really getting started. I've seen the videos of people disrespecting SSNP bodies, I've read accounts from both sides.

From what I've seen, after the takeover of West Beirut, the Mufti of Akkar (the top Sunni religious figure in the area) called for a demonstration and supporters gathered in Tripoli and marched on the SSNP headquarters there. As they were still gathering, snipers on rooftops started shooting into the crowd, killing three boys. The boys were from three villages in the surrounding area, and when their families heard the news they armed themselves and headed towards Tripoli. They had to go by way of Halba, and encountered an SSNP roadblock there (the SSNP had been alerted that they were coming). The fought them and chased them back to their offices in Halba, and massacred them. Then they apparently kicked the bodies around some - those are the videos I've seen. They handed the offices over to the army shortly afterward.

Clashes continued in Tripoli sporadically for the next couple days, but the real danger is that the Mufti and his folks are treating this as a war between the SSNP and the Sunni sect, not just SSNP v. Future. That means the Jamaa Islamiyaa, "salafis" to those in the West, are rearing to get involved. Fatah al-Islam of Nahr al-Bared fame is also sending around faxes decrying both the "American/Israeli project" as well as the apostate Shia of Hezbollah. So watch this space for further violence.

The Christian Connection. Christian areas have been entirely unaffected by the recent clashes, despite deep divisions within the communities between pro-government and pro-opposition supporters. From reporting I've read and from talking to friends in Achrafieh, it seems Hezbollah's actions have rattled the pro-opposition Christian bloc. But while some have been knocked loose and now oppose Hezbollah and their allies, there is no large exodus from the bloc behind Michel Aoun and indeed his hard core supporters have apparently become more devoutly devoted to their cause. Aoun's orange "check mark" flags are still flying proudly and I've even seen more people wearing orange around the streets.

After the battles in the Chouf I was worried that fighting might spread next to Christian areas, pitting the Lebanese Forces against die hard Aounists, Franjieh Sleiman's pro-Syrian Marada guys (at least in Zgharta in the North), and the seemingly ubiquitous SSNP. The LF are rumored to be as heavily armed and fiesty as the Druze, but these rumors are entirely untested. I have no hunches - or rather, mutually contradictory hunches - either way. It's a big fat question mark.

Michel Aoun's memorandum of understanding with Hezbollah has been waved around as the reason why the Christian areas are safe. This strikes me as feeding the crocodile so it eats you last, but Lebanese Christians appear to be happy to let this be a Sunni/Druze-Shia conflict as much as possible, and as much as the MOU helps make that possible, it helps Aoun's standing. With business as usual proceeding throughout Christian areas even as people fought it out with machine guns and RPGs in Hamra, Aoun actually comes away looking pretty smart.

So I think the take away message here is, the FPM and their allies have little stomach for testing the LF's strength, especially while continued peace makes them look good, and the LF isn't going to start anything on its own. So peace reigns in Christendom, for now.

My colleague is working on a story on the "Shia street" reaction to the events of the past few days. In addition to the ordinary calling around to people she knows here, she is also IMing with her brother, who is working in Kazakhstan, and his friend, who is visiting him. They're emailing and calling people in Beirut's southern suburbs and villages in South Lebanon, as they're more friendly with some of the Amal fighters who've been in the thick of it recently.

Our vast global army of informants at work.

So why the attacks in the Chouf? As opposition militias were transfering control in Beirut to the army, they started a frontal assault on Jumblatt's people in the Chouf, apparently unprovoked. They fought to a stalemate over the course of Sunday, and yet even after it was agreed that PSP positions were to be handed to their friends the Arslan gang and then to the army, they continued fighting here and there. Then overnight they were attacking from the Bekaa side of the mountains, in Barouk and Niha. I'll post a map in a second.

Jumblatt intimated last night that this was some sort of personal vendetta against him. But that seems like a pretty petty reason to risk an all out civil war. It could be that they were trying to get revenge for their losses on Friday night, or rescue their captured fighters. But again that's kind of petty, those fighters are dead (friends have pictures of them after they were - yes - executed), and I'm still not convinced this was actually Hezbollah and not one or more of their proxies on the front lines. I don't think they would take the risk for a few dead SSNP or Amal guys.

One theory I heard in the office today was that Hezbollah wants to control that area because it links their positions in the Bekaa with those south of Beirut. That's more compelling, and more ominous - uniting their lines could indicate that they intend to then move from there further into hostile territory, and not back to the negotiating table.

But that's the big question. If they're not going back to the negotiating table, if they're really maneuvering for a better military position, then this is just a lull and not an end to the fighting. I don't believe they actually want to invade and occupy the rest of Lebanon. Otherwise, why withdraw from West Beirut, when they'd just have to retake it?

They could be positioning in order to support opposition Christians in battles for control of Christian areas similar to what we saw in West Beirut and the Chouf. But so far there have been no indications that opposition Christians are ready and willing to hit the streets. The recent events have left that bloc even further divided and confused, with some utterly disgusted with Aoun's alliance with Hezbollah and support for this, and others quietly cheering the assault on Sunni and Druze power.

I think the takeover of West Beirut was more peaceful than Hezbollah expected, and the government's quick capitulation left them with too big a win, and they had to withdraw. But it seems that they're not ready to go back to the table yet, despite the likelihood that they could get just about everything they've been demanding for the past year and a half. I think they know that's a poisoned chalice at this point - an "political compromise" earned at gunpoint is going to be seen as completely illegitimate. It could be that they don't have plans to go back to negotiating with the present crew, and will continue putting their friends - or the army - in charge everywhere in order to force March 14 out of power.

If that's the scenario, this is an entirely new game, and March 14 attempts to make concessions and call for dialogue are dangerously obsolete. It would also mean that this is very much not over, and that remaining March 14 strongholds - Saida (Sidon) and the Christian areas - are next. Word is coming in as I type that there is shelling in Damour, which is roughly half way from Beirut to Saida.

"They [Hezbollah] got their asses kicked," was how he put it.

"Rami" described today as a major victory for the Druze of Aley, as they successfully fought Hezbollah to a standstill in the Chouf and handed over control to the Lebanese army instead.

Where I expected bitterness or resignation, Rami was ecstatic that the PSP were able to hand over their positions to Talal Arslan's people and the army. I asked him about the relations between Jumblatt's people and Arslan's - Arslan is generally with the opposition - but he said, "Politics is one thing. The leaders, they argue and fight about politics but we won't fight each other in the street. No Druze will fight other Druze."

I think that's an exaggeration, but he seemed unperturbed about the idea of Arslan's people being involved.

To back up for a second, the way Rami described it, folks in Aley woke up today expecting that the fighting was done, that the government's capitulation last night meant a deal had been made and it was back to the table. They were shocked when the attacks started, and even now he has no idea what the motivations and strategy were.

When the attacks started, the people of Aley responded, despite calls from PSP heads - and Jumblatt himself - to stand down. Rami said it was largely normal people such as himself, a school teacher, who were doing the fighting, with a few PSP commanders disobeying orders to help out. "Normal people" is a bit of a misnomer when you're talking about the Druze and fighting, of course. They're stereotyped as a pretty bad ass bunch; just about the last group you'd want to pick a fight with if you could help it.

"I learned things today about my community - I had no idea. They fought with anything. I saw old guys, Sheikhs, with World War II guns. Guns I'd never seen. And we had no ammunition. We were taking their weapons! They'd be fighting and they would run. Throw down their weapons and run."

"I've got a new gun, now. Thank you, Iran!" He claimed 25 Hezbollah dead, and 6 Druze. I have no way of confirming that, and it's certainly not been factored into the official body count yet, but there you go.

"The PSP commanders are probably going to get in trouble. I don't care. They're not - those @(*#&$( - they're not going to come into our towns and get greeted with flowers."

Rami said of Jumblatt, "He's not talking out of both sides of his mouth. They were telling us not to fight. He's afraid of a new civil war, but we're still going to defend our community."

He was adamant that his opponents had been Hezbollah, and not a proxy group like the SSNP or Amal. I'm not sure he's correct about that - Hezbollah has a reputation for not, well, downing weapons and running. And it's not easy to identify who exactly you're fighting without more standardization of uniforms. So I'm not entirely sure what to make of all that. But there you go - a different take, fresh in from the front.

It's not clear who's refusing to lay down arms, the PSP or the opposition. I could believe either - the PSP guys on the ground are extremely loyal to Jumblatt, but they really want this fight. I can't get through to my contact in Aley - shockingly, he's not answering his cell in a firefight - so I can't be sure. Opposition forces (could be Hezbollah, could be their Druze friends) are preventing al-Arabiya from filming the fighting, which could be an indication of guilt. Or it could be a simple lack of trust between the parties ending up as a self-fulfilling prophecy as both sides "defend themselves." War is confusing, especially for those fighting it.

I entertained the notion that Jumblatt telling his people not to fight in West Beirut was in order to fall back to a more defensible position. That doesn't seem like a realistic take right now. I talked to one of the frontline PSP fighters in Aley today, and he seemed pretty confused as to what Jumblatt was doing. He and his compatriots were chomping at the bit to fight and defend their turf, but lacked clear orders from above as well as ammunition.

Jumblatt is still holed up in his place in Clemenceau in West Beirut, so perhaps he's just playing it careful until he's in a less easily (as we saw two days ago) surrounded location. My good friend "Charles Malik" at Lebanese Political Journal was of the opinion that he's operating solely from the principle of community preservation. The theory being, Jumblatt has thrown in with the idea of a western aligned democratic Lebanon because it is the best thing for his community, and he is avoiding allowing Hezbollah to drag him into open warfare because it would jeopardize that state.

I'm not sure this plan of action accomplishes that goal, however. Hezbollah - well, no. Their proxies, first Amal and the SSNP in West Beirut, and this time opposition Druze in the Chouf - has been systematically neutering the disparate March 14 parties. Future was taken out with a vengeance. The PSP have now apparently been sidelined. That leaves the Christian parties untouched, and now without any robust allies to come to their aid if they're attacked.

Not that they came to their allies aid when they were attacked, though. The past few days has highlighted a huge weakness in March 14 - it's a coalition of often fractious parties, not a unified structure. There are no March 14 fighters, there are just Druze, and Sunni, and Christian. Combined they would still face long odds in an open fight against Hezbollah, but apart they're absolutely powerless.

March 14 was always faced with three basic choices. It could completely give in to opposition demands. It could give up some of its demands - demands it was very attached to - in order to get at least part of what it wanted. That's called compromise, and for all the rhetoric about comprise these past few months it wasn't very seriously explored or discussed. Or, third, they can refuse to give in at all and go to war.

Sadly, they seem to have chosen both A) and C), the proverbial worst of both worlds. And now that it's gone to the streets, B) is no longer a realistic option.

Lebanon is quickly heading for a moment - if it's not already there - where Hezbollah simply calls all the shots. How can you accept an armed invasion of your towns and neighborhoods and then go back to the negotiating table and expect to deal with your erstwhile occupiers on anything like an equal basis?

(In more personal news, my West Beirut friends have been able to return to their homes and apartments and try to pick up the pieces.)

According to NOW Lebanon, "Future Movement head Saad Hariri and PSP leader Walid Jumblatt agree to Army Command statement." So the government has essentially capitulated to Hezbollah's demands.

Looks like the nonviolence was in fact lack of stomach for a fight, rather than a shrewd political maneuver. March 14 supporters are not going to be happy.

Driving them out will not be easy; not only because Hezbollah outguns them and has much better training, but because doing that means the beginning of a civil war.

Despite Hezbollah's invasion and the rising body count - now around 20 - this isn't a civil war yet. As I mentioned before, the amount of firepower in use these past couple days should have resulted in a much higher body count - they're not fighting for real yet. And if they're not fighting for real, there's no war. Yet.

The standard example to refer to here is World War II. Germany annexed Austria, but there was no war because the Austrians didn't fight back. They went into the Sudetenland, but there was no war because the Czechs didn't fight back. But when they invaded Poland, the Poles fought back, and the war began.

The government and pro-government forces still haven't really fought back. There have been clashes, but it appears that these were largely in violation of orders from both Hariri and Jumblatt, who told their people to stand down. But if they're not going to fight Hezbollah, what they hell are they doing?

Jumblatt is an unlikely candidate for a Ghandi-style non-violent resistance campaign. His guys are believed to be some of the most heavily armed, hair-trigger brigands in Lebanon. Yet he's ordered them to stand down and back off in West Beirut, even as he himself remains under siege in his compound there.

The first explanation I jumped to was that the PSP was withdrawing so it could fight on its own turf, united, rather than street to street in Druze heavy neighborhoods in Beirut, which aren't contiguous. Jumblatt's statements calling for a rejection of arms and dialogue, as he was ordering his people to give up their positions, made me wonder if he was actually switching sides in the face of an overwhelming force - which would be a classic move for him.

Jumblatt's pro-Syrian Druze rivals seemed to smell blood in the water, too. Wiam Wahhab started demanding Jumblatt hand over all PSP positions, while Talal Arslan played good cop, talking to Jumblatt about the need for communal "unity."

But when Hezbollah pursued the PSP into Aley in the Chouf, Jumblatt jumping ship seemed less likely as a scenario. The Druze of Aley came out and fought Hezbollah and drove them off, leaving a few dead (media accounts are varying on the numbers, and I haven't been able to get in touch with my friend there) and reportedly capturing a couple Hezbollah fighters. (Hezbollah has accused the PSP of "executing" two of their people and kidnapping another. So what were they doing in Aley, then?)

Jumblatt, however, was angry that they'd fought at all. So he's not jumping ship, but he's not fighting back. What gives? Here's my guess: Hezbollah made its move on Thursday, while everyone in Lebanon was glued to the television watching Hassan Nasrallah's speech. Hezbollah teams, along with Amal and the SSNP, invade and occupy West Beirut. Despite the sound and fury accompanying it, the army basically does nothing except keep them from storming Hariri's and Jumblatt's personal residences. Hariri and Jumblatt tell their people to stand down and get out of the way, leaving Hezbollah and their allies in control of West Beirut.

Now, however, Hezbollah is stuck. They don't want to run West Beirut, not directly. Now they're an occupying force, not the patriotic resistance-against-Israel-under-attack that they were painting themselves as before.

Hezbollah wants the pro-government forces to fight back. They refuse, and they refuse to give ground politically. So now Hezbollah has to choose whether to take the fight further - into Christian areas? Aoun's not prepared to play the SSNP role for them, and that would be a major and blatantly unprovoked attack. The SSNP appears to be trying to keep things bubbling in the north, in Tripoli, with some success, but in Beirut things so far are on a pretty tight leash despite attempts at provocation. Do they back off instead? That's a big climb down, and hard to spin as anything else.

They could just sit and wait, and bet that March 14 has to make a move at some point. A sit-in and occupation of West Beirut and access to the airport can't be worked around the way the downtown sit-in was. But then it becomes a question of what runs out first - March 14's patience, or Hezbollah's remaining credibility.

Driving them out will not be easy; not only because Hezbollah outguns them and has much better training, but because doing that means the beginning of a civil war.

Despite Hezbollah's invasion and the rising body count - now around 20 - this isn't a civil war yet. As I mentioned before, the amount of firepower in use these past couple days should have resulted in a much higher body count - they're not fighting for real yet. And if they're not fighting for real, there's no war. Yet.

The standard example to refer to here is World War II. Germany annexed Austria, but there was no war because the Austrians didn't fight back. They went into the Sudetenland, but there was no war because the Czechs didn't fight back. But when they invaded Poland, the Poles fought back, and the war began.

The government and pro-government forces still haven't really fought back. There have been clashes, but it appears that these were largely in violation of orders from both Hariri and Jumblatt, who told their people to stand down. But if they're not going to fight Hezbollah, what they hell are they doing?

Jumblatt is an unlikely candidate for a Ghandi-style non-violent resistance campaign. His guys are believed to be some of the most heavily armed, hair-trigger brigands in Lebanon. Yet he's ordered them to stand down and back off in West Beirut, even as he himself remains under siege in his compound there.

The first explanation I jumped to was that the PSP was withdrawing so it could fight on its own turf, united, rather than street to street in Druze heavy neighborhoods in Beirut, which aren't contiguous. Jumblatt's statements calling for a rejection of arms and dialogue, as he was ordering his people to give up their positions, made me wonder if he was actually switching sides in the face of an overwhelming force - which would be a classic move for him.

Jumblatt's pro-Syrian Druze rivals seemed to smell blood in the water, too. Wiam Wahhab started demanding Jumblatt hand over all PSP positions, while Talal Arslan played good cop, talking to Jumblatt about the need for communal "unity."

But when Hezbollah pursued the PSP into Aley in the Chouf, Jumblatt jumping ship seemed less likely as a scenario. The Druze of Aley came out and fought Hezbollah and drove them off, leaving a few dead (media accounts are varying on the numbers, and I haven't been able to get in touch with my friend there) and reportedly capturing a couple Hezbollah fighters. (Hezbollah has accused the PSP of "executing" two of their people and kidnapping another. So what were they doing in Aley, then?)

Jumblatt, however, was angry that they'd fought at all. So he's not jumping ship, but he's not fighting back. What gives? Here's my guess: Hezbollah made its move on Thursday, while everyone in Lebanon was glued to the television watching Hassan Nasrallah's speech. Hezbollah teams, along with Amal and the SSNP, invade and occupy West Beirut. Despite the sound and fury accompanying it, the army basically does nothing except keep them from storming Hariri's and Jumblatt's personal residences. Hariri and Jumblatt tell their people to stand down and get out of the way, leaving Hezbollah and their allies in control of West Beirut.

Now, however, Hezbollah is stuck. They don't want to run West Beirut, not directly. Now they're an occupying force, not the patriotic resistance-against-Israel-under-attack that they were painting themselves as before.

Hezbollah wants the pro-government forces to fight back. They refuse, and they refuse to give ground politically. So now Hezbollah has to choose whether to take the fight further - into Christian areas? Aoun's not prepared to play the SSNP role for them, and that would be a major and blatantly unprovoked attack. The SSNP appears to be trying to keep things bubbling in the north, in Tripoli, with some success, but in Beirut things so far are on a pretty tight leash despite attempts at provocation. Do they back off instead? That's a big climb down, and hard to spin as anything else.

They could just sit and wait, and bet that March 14 has to make a move at some point. A sit-in and occupation of West Beirut and access to the airport can't be worked around the way the downtown sit-in was. But then it becomes a question of what runs out first - March 14's patience, or Hezbollah's remaining credibility.

The Opposition

Hezbollah

Leader: Hassan Nasrallah
Sect: Shia
Organization: Most people know about Hezbollah, or at least of them. Hezbollah represents by far the largest and most advanced military organization in Lebanon, and they enjoy majority support of Lebanon's Shia. They also constitute a veritable state-within-a-state in South Lebanon and much of the Bekaa Valley, between the coast and the Syrian border. Their headquarters is located in the southern suburbs of Beirut, near the airport. Though they have frequently appeared to take a back seat in political quarrels, the smart money is that Hezbollah is the real power and decision maker for the opposition.

Amal

Leader: Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri
Sect: Shia
Organization: Amal represents most of the rest of the Shia after subtracting Hezbollah's share. They trend more middle class as compared to Hezbollah's poor and working class constituency. Amal and Hezbollah are rivals - and members frequently clash - within the Shia community, but Hezbollah so dominates the Shia political scene that Amal always has to go along with them, grumbling or not. Amal is closer to Syria, whereas Hezbollah is closer to Iran. Amal has recently been more prone to get into street clashes in mixed areas of Beirut, but that's a result of their having less discipline in the ranks than Hezbollah.

Opposition Christians

Leader: Michel Aoun
Sect: Christian
Organization: Opposition Christians are a varied bunch. The core Aoun group is the Free Patriotic Movement, which at this point is simply a cult of personality around Aoun, a big civil war figure, and his patronage network. The greater "Change and Reform" bloc built around the FPM consists of people who have for electoral or other reasons allied themselves with Aoun. Beyond "Change and Reform," there are the Marada people under Sleiman Franjieh in North Lebanon who are long time Syrian allies, and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party. Guess who they're with?

Opposition Druze

Leader: Wiam Wahhab and Talal Arslan
Sect: Druze
Organization: I don't know much about the pro-Syrian Druze. They're a minority among that community, mostly outside Beirut. Wahhab is loud, but the military capabilities of the Arslan clan and their ilk are a mystery to me.

March 14

The Lebanese Forces

Leader: Samir Geagea
Sect: Christian
Organization: The LF is rumored to be one of the two militarily strongest elements of the March 14 coalition. Along with the Phalangists (also known by the Arabic name al-Kataeb), they control East Beirut right now, and have a large presence in most of the rest of Christian Lebanon north and east of the capital. Their strength is likely a large part of the reason that Aounist Christians have been so quiet during all of this. They're not yet tested in battle, though.

The Progessive Socialist Party

Leader: Walid Jumblatt
Sect: Druze
Organization: These guys are the LF's rival for military strength on the March 14 side. They've taken a bruising in the past couple days against Hezbollah, though. It appeaers that they're playing it safe for now, beating an orderly retreat, so I don't think we've actually seen what they can really do yet. I don't know. They've largely left West Beirut, and their base is in the Chouf Mts. east of the capital where most of Lebanon's Druze live. They may have an internal front against Wahhab's and Arslan's people, though.

Future Movement

Leader: Saad Hariri
Sect: Sunni
Organization: The Future Movement has suffered the most from the loss of West Beirut. Their media outlets have been occupied and/or destroyed, though they've retained their base of strength in Tariq Jedideh, right near Hezbollah's southern suburbs. This is cut off from Hariri headquarters in Qoreitem, in Hamra, however. They have large reserves of support in North Lebanon, but these are far removed from conflict in the capital.

Not quite. My friends are still largely pinned down in Hamra, the college town neighborhood just south of the American University of Beirut. (update: it sounds like most of them have gotten out now during the lull.) Fighting appears to have died down for now - until just recently there was still heavy fire, both machine gun and RPGs, around Walid Jumblatt's and Saad Hariri's compounds in the area, but everything is pretty quiet now. No word on what Hariri's status is, but Jumblatt has declared he's staying put. But it's quiet.

That's because Hezbollah and its allies have basically won. Hezbollah outguns and by most accounts outnumbers the Lebanese Army, and it demonstrably dominates the other partisan militias as well. There's likely going to be a period of reassessment, some more declarations from all sides, and then we'll see. The government has pretty much two options. Give in and resign, or fight back.

So far, there really hasn't been that much fighting. The last statistic I saw was eleven dead. As a colleague in my office said, "If I unleashed the amount of firepower we've seen in the past couple days I would kill more people than that by accident."

That indicates that all the sides are still not quite ready to declare open war. The Lebanese Army has not engaged the militias - they're glorified hall monitors at the moment. Jumblatt's PSP (the Druze militia/party, and rumored to be one of the most heavily armed pro-government groups, along with the Christian Lebanese Forces) has fought an orderly retreat and evacuation, rather than standing and fighting. Tariq Jedideh, the Sunni stronghold right near the Hezbollah controlled southern suburbs, is still under Sunni militia control and basically untouched. And the Christian areas are also untouched, despite long standing deep divisions between pro- and anti-government parties.

Hezbollah has played this very wisely. They've spent the last two years laying the groundwork for this - establishing communication networks, expanding into new areas, growing their forces. In December 2006 they began a sit-in around downtown, and from there they've been able to cut many of the major roads linking the East and West over the past couple days. Even in their recent moves, they've positioned themselves and then dared the government to move them. If the government sends in the army against them, they can then say they're defending themselves.

Of course, that's a thin argument now, but it's becoming increasingly irrelevant.

So now, we see what the government will do. Does Hezbollah and its allies control Lebanon? Or do we have a civil war?